Barbara D. Livingston
Despite a win in the Shawnee, Scylla could be a vulnerable favorite in Saturday's Fleur de Lis at Churchill Downs.
No trainer has more Fleur de Lis Stakes wins than Bill Mott, and nearly no one would be surprised if Mott notches his fifth Saturday with Scylla.
Mott’s Fleur de Lis victories span 35 years, from the 1984 renewal with John Franks’s Heatherten to 2019 with Elate.
But too many bettors will pour win money in on Scylla, and if her 6-5 morning line holds, it’s hard to bet on Mott, even if he stands a strong chance of winning again.
Five other older fillies and mares join Scylla in the $500,000 Fleur de Lis, a Grade 2 contested at 1 1/8 miles. Scylla, the mount of Javier Castellano, breaks from post 4, with rail-drawn Free Like a Girl, Shotgun Hottie, and Taxed inside her, and Occult and Xigera in posts 5 and 6.
Scylla possesses talent, no question. A blue-blooded Juddmonte Farms homebred by Tapit out of Close Hatches, Scylla has won 4 of 6, and after finishing a well-beaten third at 11-10 making her stakes debut in the Doubledogdare at Keeneland in April, Scylla won the Grade 3 Shawnee at Churchill by 3 1/4 lengths on June 1.
The Shawnee marked Scylla’s first start in blinkers, the equipment added despite the filly having won an allowance race by seven lengths one month earlier. Mott based the equipment change on Scylla’s Doubledogdare, where she lost focus racing inside and among horses. Scylla also had never tried two turns prior to the Doubledogdare, and after cutting back to a one-turn mile in the allowance romp, she seemingly answered the route question in the 1 1/16-mile Shawnee.
Or did she? Scylla got a good trip pressing a slow pace and ran her final 2 1/2 furlongs in 30.53 seconds, solid but not spectacular. Left in her wake were Xigera, who had nothing for the finish despite getting an easy lead, and Wet Paint, who might be slower this year at age 4 than she was at 3.
Scylla has plenty of scope and looks like a real route horse, and her pedigree says she should stay 1 1/8 miles, but the jury’s still out on how far she wants to run. And Scylla’s top Beyer Speed Figure of 93 makes her just another contender. It’s fair predicting she’ll better that number, but one is supposed to get fair odds making such a projection.
The competition doesn’t run deep. Free Like a Girl exits a second behind champion Idiomatic in the Grade 1 La Troienne but lost by nearly four lengths in a race where no one other than the winner fired. Taxed has only two allowance wins from five starts since an apparent breakout victory 13 months ago in the Black-Eyed Susan. Occult returned from a seven-month layoff to run second at 1-5 in a listed Monmouth stakes – instead of moving on to the Molly Pitcher there, she winds up at Churchill. And Xigera, while much better in the Shawnee than in her disastrous La Troienne, still looks like a shadow of her best self.
That leaves Shotgun Hottie, who peaked in the fourth and fifth starts of her 2023 form cycle and is falling into the same pattern. After three modest runs, she aired May 17 in the Allaire duPont at Pimlico, earning a career-best 99 Beyer and coming out of that race asking for more. She since has worked strongly at Keeneland with the crack sprinter-miler Vahva, trainer Cherie DeVaux said.
“She has to run herself into fitness. She’s a big filly, hard to train on her with her size. She looks great and has really trained well since her last race,” DeVaux said.
Scylla better come ready.
Kelly’s Landing Stakes
If Anarchist, in his first start since August, runs to his name Saturday anything can happen. If he runs to his better 2023 form and some recent training, he can win the $250,000 Kelly’s Landing.
Anarchist drew the rail with six outside him in the 6 1/2-furlong dirt sprint that has Hoist the Gold as the 3-1 morning-line favorite over 7-2 Closethegamesugar, with Anarchist pegged at 6-1. That seems too high.
Anarchist did little before joining trainer Doug O’Neill’s barn for his 4-year-old season in 2023, when he ran top races on turf, Tapeta, and dirt, winning the Pat O’Brien over Santa Anita dirt and in June finishing second to top class Elite Power going this distance in the True North.
The obvious question: How ready will Anarchist be after his layoff? O’Neill suggested 90 percent.
“He’s a big boy, but he’s had a lot of good gallops. He’s very willing and wanting to do it in the morning. I think he’ll come back as good or better than he was last year,” O’Neill said.
Jockey Antonio Fresu has been working Anarchist. The gelding was sharp out of the gate in a June 9 Santa Anita drill and got his last quarter-mile in about 24 seconds on June 16, punctuated by a powerhouse gallop-out.
Hoist the Gold hit a peak last fall he might never reach again, while Closethegamesugar ran the race of his life last month beating Skelly in the Aristides. Bango’s best days are behind him, and so, probably, are Tejano Twist’s.
Anarchy at Churchill.
:: Want to learn more about handicapping and wagering? Check out DRF's Handicapping 101 and Wagering 101 pages.
